At last week came the long-awaited official pronouncement of the end of the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition to interfering with almost every aspect of U.S. economic activity, it had played havoc with the usual patterns expected for St. Cloud’s spring selling season. This year, although the week may have ended on a decidedly positive note, up until midweek the national real estate news looked less like what you’d expect in May and more like what’s normal for the middle of a sleepy summer: that is, nothing much happening.

That didn’t stop U.S. headline writers from creating positive-sounding ways to embellish the ‘not-much-happening’ details. Typical was Mortgage News Daily’s lead story, “Mortgage Application Volume Boosted by Fed Comments.” That certainly sounded good—both home purchase and refinancing application totals had responded favorably to “the Fed signal[ing] a potential pause in the federal funds rate” in anticipation of an inflation slowdown. An easing of inflation is much to be wished for. St. Cloud real estate would be only one of many beneficiaries, so if the Fed can accomplish that without causing further interest rate hikes, it would be a healthy development.

Yet, the actual volume increases were less than heady, although CNBC’s headlined characterization (“Mortgage demand surge”) would have given readers a different impression. The purchase application increase of 5% was still 32% lower than last year’s level. Refi activity may have “surged” twice that—10%—but MND had to admit that its impact was limited since “only a small pool of borrowers can benefit” from rates at present levels.

The financial press contingent was moderately less buoyant. MarketWatch had to admit the happy talk needed to be tempered—even within the same headline. So “The party’s over for America’s housing market…” was only the first half of Wednesday’s banner—followed by “…but this real-estate CEO believes it will recover.” MW acknowledged that portions of the housing market have encountered “some turbulence”—but “nothing that can’t work itself out…”

Scouring the nation’s press for hints relevant to St. Cloud’s spring selling season received a more encouraging assessment at Dave Ramsey’s ramseysolutions.com. That source is usually reliably realistic, so it was good to fall back on its hard-headed analysis. The Ramsey takeaway was straightforward: “2023 is not 2021.” The U.S. real estate market is “still strong—it’s just not crazy anymore.”

            That sounds about right. If you’re curious about St. Cloud’s spring selling season’s progress—especially the latest local activity that relates to your own housing outlook, just give me a call!   

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