“BiggerPockets” is an often-entertaining podcast whose commentators’ unpretentious approach makes for easy listening. When they do occasionally venture into the uncertain realm of prognostication, it is typical for them to admit that they don’t know exactly what is going to happen with the economy next year. But last week, they were willing to take a shot at it anyway.

Their rationale was entirely reasonable: “If you just say, ‘I have no ideas what’s going to happen,’ it’s really hard to make decisions.” Anyone who has been wrestling with major decisions about St. Cloud real estate matters in 2023 would be hard-pressed to disagree.

In the spirit of attempting to ‘soften’ those ‘hard’ decisions a bit, here is a broad sampling of the educated guesses (and hedges) that were being advanced on Saturday—right at the threshold of the New Year:

From NerdWallet = “…if rates do stabilize, buyers will feel more secure about their costs, and they might jump back into the housing market.”

From U.S.News & World Report: “With over 85% of homeowners paying mortgage rates below 5%, more people will delay moving…until rates retreat below 5%...”

From Forbes Advisor: “…Many housing insiders warn buyers against trying to time the market…Waiting may not be a viable option...there isn’t likely to be significant improvement in prices or interest rates.”

From RISMedia: “Darkness is not all that looms on the horizon…there are some beams of sunlight poking through to give hope to upward growth in the market.”

From the National Association of Realtors^®: “[last month] the median existing-home sales price…increased 3.5% from one year ago, as prices rose in all regions…available housing inventory remains near historic lows.”

From HousingWire: “Now it’s important to pay attention to local market conditions…as the housing market correction underway is going to look very different depending on where you are located.”

The last two look to be the most useful. Even though an actual decline in asking prices is sometimes predicted, the latest data shows national prices still on the rise—though at a decreased pace. With inventories still at historically low levels, market pressures at this juncture should work to support those prices. But most important was HousingWire’s caution: local conditions are what define the buying and selling prospects where they matter to you.

For the most reliable 2023 bellwethers, call me for a precise, no-obligation readout on the latest activity for the relevant St. Cloud real estate comps.   

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