Last week it was hard for St. Cloud Real Estate Section readers who subscribe to The New York Times not to at least crack a smile. That august periodical’s captains abandoned their usually confident demeanor, all but admitting they hadn’t a clue about the market’s short-term direction. Friday’s “What’s Up with the Crazy Housing Market?” read like a psychiatric therapist’s notes following a particularly bewildering session.

Coming as it did from the Newspaper of Record, this would have made consoling reading for St. Cloud real estate observers who have been hard put to make sense of often conflicting signals from the U.S. marketplace. While acknowledging that the housing market does find itself at “a pivotal moment,” the Times conceded that the nature and direction of that pivot are, for the moment, uncommonly inscrutable. As it mused in the opening paragraph, “pivoting to what, exactly?”

Quotes from an unusually broad range of real estate experts yielded various notes of optimism, pessimism, and, taken as a whole, overall uncertainty. The text ran to more than 2,100 words, but a sampling of the dozen or so experts who were quoted illustrates their collective quandary:

Bullish:

“Home prices…rose more than 20% from May 2021 to May 2022.”

“Bidding wars accounted for 55% of home sales in the four weeks ending June 19.”

“Prices are unlikely to collapse.”

“There are more people who want to buy than people who want to sell.”

(On mortgage interest rates) “Experts aren’t anticipating that rates will return to the elevated levels of the 1970s and 80s.”

Bearish:

“Housing demand is down….”

“This spring…was stalled by a spike in mortgage rates.”

“Unless you’re paying in cash, buying a home just got a lot more expensive.”

(On mortgage interest rates)  “…until inflation recedes, they will keep rising.”

“Right now, we’re in this cauldron of uncertainty…[and] housing hates uncertainty.”

Clearly, St. Cloud real estate watchers accustomed to looking to the Grey Lady for tea leaf readings will have to wait a while. In the meantime, though, for residents looking for a clear readout on their segment of the market, the picture isn’t at all crazy. Call me for an unambiguous report on the latest sales results; as always, it will be presented with no obligation!

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