When the Forbes’ Advisor site posts a question in its top editorial slot, most St. Cloud readers assume it will wind up being rhetorical. If an answer follows, it’s likely to be couched in ambiguities. But still, the question posed in the “Advisor” was intriguing: When Will Home Prices Become Affordable? The answer to that question has consequences for anyone looking to buy or sell St. Cloud homes.

The opening paragraphs held no surprises (but also no answers). They reprised familiar observations about 2022’s skyrocketing interest rates and the pressure they put on the housing market. According to the authors, the pressure was “much-needed” because it acted to slow the rise in home prices, which had surpassed record highs. The reasons why the reversal—the decline in mortgage rates that began in December—had not led to significant home affordability gains were because of…well, almost everything else:

·         Overall housing supply remains limited

·         Recent homebuyers are staying put to retain their existing low mortgage rates

·         New home construction “fell again”

The upshot was that homes remained unaffordable for many—especially first-time homebuyers. With all those elements pulling in the opposite directions, home prices across the U.S. were not nose-diving despite declining mortgage rates. Most buyers were holding fire.

The text then moved to answer the question that had drawn readers in the first place: just when will home prices become affordable? The answer was right there, in black-and-white: “How far home prices dip in 2023,” came the answer, “will likely depend on where mortgage rates go.”

If that seemed to be a copout, listing two more facts didn’t help. They seemed to counteract one another:

The NAR’s Lawrence Yun had said, “Markets in roughly half the country are likely to offer discounted prices compared to last year;” in contrast to another market expert’s opinion, “Housing supply remaining stuck at near historic lows…[will support] home prices.”

Discounted prices…or Supported home prices? With even the direction of prices so thoroughly muddled by counterindications, speculation about when loses meaning. But there followed at least one meaningful piece of expert advice to buyers: “Instead of waiting for much lower prices…buy a home based on your budget and needs.” And, come to think of it, that does at least partially answer the ‘when’ of the headline…

Right now, resolute buyers here are discovering St. Cloud homes that merit a closer look. Call me to discuss this and the forthcoming spring market!

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